Armenia vs azerbaijan

 

Armenia vs Azerbaijan: A History of Conflict and a Future of Peace?

Armenia and Azerbaijan are two former Soviet republics in the South Caucasus region, which have been locked in a decades-long dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous territory that is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but was populated and controlled by ethnic Armenians until 2020.

The conflict dates back to the late 1980s, when Nagorno-Karabakh declared its independence from Azerbaijan with Armenia's support, amid the collapse of the Soviet Union. A full-scale war broke out in 1992, resulting in about 30,000 casualties and hundreds of thousands of refugees on both sides. A ceasefire was signed in 1994, but it left Armenia in charge of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts, which together made up about 20% of Azerbaijan's territory.

The ceasefire was frequently violated by sporadic clashes and skirmishes, as both sides accused each other of violating the terms of the agreement and sought to change the status quo by force. The international community, led by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chaired by Russia, France and the United States, tried to mediate a peaceful resolution of the conflict, but failed to achieve any breakthroughs.

In 2020, a new war erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, which was widely seen as a result of the frustration and impatience of both sides with the lack of progress in the peace process, as well as the involvement of regional powers such as Turkey and Russia. The war lasted for six weeks and ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire on November 10, 2020, which stipulated that Armenia had to withdraw from most of the territories it had occupied around Nagorno-Karabakh, while Azerbaijan had to allow the return of displaced Armenians to some areas under its control. The ceasefire also deployed nearly 2,000 Russian peacekeepers to monitor the situation and facilitate the exchange of prisoners and bodies.

The 2020 war was a major victory for Azerbaijan, which managed to regain much of its lost land and restore its territorial integrity, with the support of Turkey, which provided military and diplomatic assistance to its ethnic Turkic ally. The war was also a major defeat for Armenia, which suffered heavy losses in terms of human lives, military equipment and strategic positions, and faced a political crisis and social unrest in the aftermath of the war.

The 2020 ceasefire agreement was hailed by some as a historic opportunity to end the long-standing conflict and pave the way for a lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, it also faced many challenges and criticisms from both sides, as well as from some external actors. Some of the main issues that remain unresolved or contentious include:

- The final status of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is still claimed by both sides but remains under Armenian control with Russian protection. The agreement did not specify whether Nagorno-Karabakh would have any autonomy or self-governance within Azerbaijan, or whether it would be integrated into Armenia or become an independent state.

- The security and rights of the local populations in Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent areas, especially the ethnic Armenians who fear persecution or discrimination by Azerbaijan, and the ethnic Azeris who were displaced by the war and want to return to their homes.

- The role and mandate of the Russian peacekeepers, who are supposed to stay for five years but can be extended by mutual consent of both sides. Some critics argue that Russia has used its military presence to increase its influence and leverage in the region, at the expense of other international actors or initiatives.

- The involvement and interests of other regional powers, such as Turkey, Iran and Georgia, who have different views and agendas regarding the conflict and its resolution. Turkey has been a staunch supporter of Azerbaijan and has sought to expand its economic and security ties with it, while Iran has been wary of Turkey's role and has tried to maintain good relations with both sides. Georgia has been concerned about the stability and security of its borders and has offered to host talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

- The prospects for dialogue and reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, who have been estranged by decades of hostility and mistrust. The agreement called for opening transport links and establishing economic cooperation between them, but there has been little progress on these fronts so far.